Last week we saw the first of potentially more rates cuts as both the BoC and ECB cut rates by 25bps. I know our reports have been looking at rate cuts being pushed deeper and deeper into 2024 and the NFP number last week seemed to continue its signal of higher for longer.
Some of the releases though were less heartening in the US labor market with quality of jobs falling and more part time than full time roles being filled.
The dollar had a troubled week until the payrolls numbers as the main headline was positive for the greenback. The DXY managed a modest 0.3% rise on the week to close just below 105.
Once again both GBP and EUR had sideways weeks. The ECB rate cut had been signaled for some time but with little forward guidance the EUR ended the week a little lower than it started which was more USD strength post payrolls. The noise from the ECB was non-committal so we will see how the data plays out along with the European elections.
Oil continued its trend lower falling 2.3% and pushing $75/bbl.
The week ahead post payrolls will be key. We have US CPI which could be a major block for any FOMC room to cut rates and we will get a key indication of how inflation is in the US economy.
We also have a large amount of global inflationary data with releases also from Japan Switzerland and Germany.
Weekly Majors’ Market Performance
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